COM 280T Political Communication

Week 3 – Campaign Strategy

Key elements in any Campaign Strategy

1. Determine how many votes will it take to win. (Contingenies)
   1. Review past elections to determine average needed for victory
   2. Add a cushion (2-5%) for the unexpected & changes since last election.
2. Determine a message that will work for the candidate and the voters (strategy).
   1. Do pre-strategy analysis (SWOT, Who’ll say What?)
   2. Decide how to communicate the message (tactics)

                                                              i.      “Where do you receive your political news?” (Poll)

                                                            ii.      Mass media or personal campaigning (size, market, TV)

3. Talk to candidate

                                                              i.      What does s/he feel strongly about?

4. Review polling/census data of the district

                                                              i.      What do the voters feel strongly about?

                                                            ii.      Where do candidate and voters overlap?

5. Review message as campaign moves to close. 

                                                              i.      Do voters want a new or additional message?

                                                            ii.      Has something changed?  (9/11)

3. Decide how much money is needed and where to get it.
   1. Hire a fundraiser
   2. Campaign chairs

4. Who is part of strategy and message development process:
   1. Candidate/family
   2. Consultant
   3. Pollster
   4. Close political friends/rest of team
   5. Fundraiser
      
       

Developing a Campaign Strategy (Part I – Pre-strategy analysis)

I.                     SWOT Analysis

a.      Strengths – positive attributes and assets, credibility, money

b.      Weaknesses – negative attributes, records, lack of money

c.      Opportunities – Outside factors that could help (economy, trends)

d.      Threats  - Outside factors that could hurt (flip of “c”)

II.                   Who’ll say what matrix

What will be said about….

a.      This develops a chart of potential messages to be used by us and them.

b.      Can be used for polling and to implement strategy (predictive statements that will guide strategy development and tactics)  “The opposition will say “x” about us, so we’ll say “y.”

DSeveloping a Campaign Strategy (Part II - Strategy Selection)
 

III.                  Strategy Development (Message)

a.      Development of tactics (how to implement the strategy)

                                                              i.      Based on polling data which tests assumptions made above.

                                                            ii.      Tactics depend on strategy.

b.      Incumbents vs Challenger (both might be available in an open election.)

Strategy #1:  Incumbent:  Use of own current office to influence media and focus attention on message.  (Can also be used to some extent in an open seat race.)

1.      Creating psudo events

2.      Make appointments (to get media attention)

3.      Creating “task forces,” etc

4.      Give out money (pork)

5.      “consult” with higher-ups, big-shots

6.      manipulate the economy or local trends to your benefit (employment numbers, etc)

7.      Endorsements

8.      Accomplishments

9.      Create an “above the fray” image

10. Surrogates

11. intensity a problem so it becomes a crises you intervene in

Strategy #2:  Challenger:  Use incumbent’s record against him/her while developing own “psudo record.”  (“Need for change,” “reform,” “outsider,” etc…)

1.      Attack the record

2.      Take the offensive

3.      Calling for change

4.      Optimism for the future

5.      Speaking to values instead of calling for a change in values

6.      Appear to represent the center of the party (not extreme)

7.      Delegate negative attacks to control rhetoric and appear above the fray

Strategy #3:  In Man-Out Man (sways weakly committed)

Development of two bi-polar images of the In Man (incumbent or anyone portrayed as an insider) and the Out Man (you, the challenger, the outsider)  Best in a two horse race.  (Vote against the other guy rather than for me.)

            Step 1:  Attack stage

            Step 2:  Build positive image of your candidate  (good for undecided vote)

            Step 3:  Innoculation – brace for counter-attack

Strategy #4:  Assumed Incumbency Strategy (“the natural choice”)

Based on the idea that your candidate is the natural choice to replace the outgoing incumbent.  Works if the incumbent is popular and endorses you and you can somehow claim your candidate is the natural choice.  Republicans love this one.  (Reagan -> Bush)  You ignore the opposition and focus on the issues.

Step 1:  Legitimacy – generate expectations of front-runner status w/opinion makers.

            Step 2:  Identification – increased public visibility, name recognition

Step 3:  Reinforcement – reaffirm legitimacy by meeting expectations –competency + empathy.  (Clinton did this very well.)

Classic Strategies:

1.      The Easy Decision/Positional Strategy –an emotional strategy is employed to get indifferent voters to vote (for you)  (Rhetoric is used to define a position.)  (Bush ’02 –Compassionate Conservatism)

2.      Ticket-Splitters – target voters who vote for both R and D to vote for you based on problem solving ability and strong info.  Party identification does not matter here.

3.      Least Objectional Candidate – you offend the fewest.  Moderates win.